If anyone still doubts that medical travel and tourism are having a serious impact on discussions about the future of healthcare delivery in the United States, perhaps they should click on over to this “Let’s Talk Health Care” blog post by Charlie Baker, president and CEO of Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, Inc., one of New England’s leading non-profit health plans. I know the discussion about medical travel has been going on within Harvard Pilgrim for some time, having discussed it last year with Jim Sabin, chairman of the company’s Ethics Advisory Group, who has also blogged about the subject.

Baker notes that — according to a study by the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions — the number of people leaving the U.S. to access care in other countries is now growing at a faster rate than the number of people coming from other countries to the US to seek care. “A lot faster,” he says, and he goes on to discuss the profound implications this may have for healthcare in America. The Deloitte study suggests that U.S. healthcare providers will lose almost $16 billion in revenue in 2007 to outbound medical tourism.

“If Deloitte’s trends are correct, the size of that loss will grow to almost $70 billion by 2010 — as much as 10% of total revenues by 2010,” Baker says.

Vic Lazzaro, CEO of BridgeHealth International, thinks that the Deloitte conclusions are perhaps alarmist

“That under this scenario there will be a loss of revenue to hospitals and facilities in the U.S., over time, cannot be denied,” Lazarro commented. “We also would be surprised, though, if that impact was significant for any one hospital or physician.

“We would hope those factors in the U.S. would result in increasing focus on quality, outcomes reporting, service and cost reduction, as this is now what is being delivered at the international hospital destinations.”

The Deloitte study found that nearly 40 percent of American healthcare consumers would be willing to travel outside the country for care if the quality was comparable and the cost was cut in half or more. Highlights of the study include:

– The level of interest differed widely by gender, age group, ethnic category and types of insurance the respondents carried. Most notably, men are much more likely than women to consider a trip abroad for treatment, by a margin of 44.5 to 33.3 percent. Additional highlights:

By Age Group:

• 51.1 percent of Gen Y would engage in medical tourism
• 41.9 percent of Gen X
• 36.7 percent of Baby Boomers
• 29.1 percent of Seniors

By Ethnic Breakdown:

• 56.8 percent of Asians are likely to go abroad for less expensive medical treatment
• 51.1 percent of Hispanics
• 37.8 percent of Caucasians
• 36.9 percent of African-Americans

By Insurance Category:

• 40.1 percent of those with commercial insurance
• 29.9 percent of those with Medicaid
• 28 percent of those with Medicare